Episode Transcript
[00:00:18] Speaker A: Hi, everybody, and welcome to another edition of the Southern Fried Podcast, a production of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette. I'm Rex Nelson, Democrat Gazette senior editor and one of our regulars. Although it's been a few months, I'm glad to have Skip Rutherford back, Dean emeritus of the Clinton School here in Little Rock, the man I call Mr. Arkansas. And the subject we want to talk about today is population trends inside Arkansas. Because, Skip, you and I both loving Arkansas history, Arkansas economic development, all of that. We share a real interest in watching population trends in the state.
[00:00:57] Speaker B: And we've lived it, Rex. We've seen the big changes that have been going on. We've seen it in our lifetimes. We've seen it growing up in small towns like Arkadelphia in Batesville, which, according to national statistics, are, quote, urban areas today.
You and I would have. Some would argue with that, argue a bit of that. But on the other hand, there is. There are shifts happening. There are things happening, and it's worth.
[00:01:24] Speaker A: Having a conversation about, it really is. The U.S. census Bureau recently released its updated population estimates for the state.
Now, those numbers, Skip, confirmed what people like you and I who travel around the state on a regular basis already knew, and that is the urbanization of Arkansas is really speeding up. I mean, we have long thought of ourselves and we long were, is a rural state, but more and more we are becoming an urban state with the growth centralized in northwest Arkansas, central Arkansas, and what I now call the Jonesboro Paragould Corridor.
[00:02:04] Speaker B: You're right. I mean, when we used to think of urban, when we were younger, it would be Dallas or Houston or New Orleans.
But we are becoming urban in Arkansas, at least according to the numbers I saw, is now about 59% urban, 41% rural.
Now, we're still a high percentage rural state. Let's not knock that.
[00:02:31] Speaker A: That's right. Compared to a lot of states. Compared to a lot of states, certainly.
[00:02:34] Speaker B: So let's, let's put that on the table. But what we're seeing is a concentrated urban growth area. And you just mentioned it. When you take the 10 most populous counties in Arkansas and there are three in the northwest, six in central, and then Craighead and Northeast, you comprise about 56% of the state's population. Now think about that. Ten counties. Yep, 56% of the state's population, three concentrated in Northwest, six in Central, one in Jonesboro. And what that means is not only are the people moving there and living there, but so are the services like hospitals and dentists and grocery stores. And when you start Thinking about that, it's not just population relocation, it is business relocation.
[00:03:37] Speaker A: And the thing I see, Skip, as I travel east Arkansas and south Arkansas and as you know, I write a lot about both of those areas. I'm a south Arkansas boy. The thing I see as I travel those areas in so many of the communities is the hollowing out of the middle class.
You've got the poor who can't afford to get out, then you've got the landowners, the farmers who are very wealthy and, and stay. But what you're losing is those doctors and those dentists and those bank officers and those insurance agency owners and those accountants that used to drive small communities across Arkansas. And whereas I could name towns, I won't do it here. But whereas I would go speak to a Rotary Club 20 years ago and they'd have 60 there. They might have 10 or 12 there now in that same community. And they're all over the age of 70.
No, you agree we're seeing that?
[00:04:40] Speaker B: I totally agree. When you look at why people not, not necessarily the. Well, both moving in and relocating from within inter and intra state movement, a lot of it is, you know, when you study it, it's job based, it's health care based, it's education based.
And now what we're seeing a trend I think is this family based where a lot of people or moving to be with their kids or their grandkids. Used to people would come back to the small towns you and I were not naming, but we know what we're talking about here and there's nothing wrong with them because they're, you know, I love those places. But, but children would come home to farm.
[00:05:28] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:05:29] Speaker B: And families would come home to doctors would come home to work at the local hospital. And that's. And that's slowly but surely fading away.
[00:05:38] Speaker A: It absolutely is. Now though, central Arkansas is holding its own. This won't surprise anybody. Arkansas's growth still being driven by northwest Arkansas in these latest census bureau estimates. And this was from 2023, July of 2023 to July of 2020.
Get this, the seven fastest growing towns were all in Benton and Washington counties.
And that growth, all you have to do is drive around that region. That growth is no longer just the big four. It's no longer just Fayetteville. It's no longer Springdale, Rogers and Bentonville. Those four.
Everything in between and close by is filling in of cities with 1,000 or more residents. Pea Ridge had the highest growth rate at 17%.
Next was Hyphil at 15.2%.
Tonti Town was at 7.9%. So we're seeing explosive growth in what we once thought of as very small communities around the big four in northwest Arkansas.
[00:07:01] Speaker B: Yeah, and I think that's right. But I think if in a few days ago your colleague at the Democratic Gazette, Doug Thompson, wrote a really good piece, page one article about growth in northwest Arkansas is coming from face to face with water and sewer issues.
[00:07:24] Speaker A: Absolutely.
[00:07:24] Speaker B: Wastewater issues. And you talk about Centerton and you talk about Decatur and you talk about Hyfle and you talk about Peerage. They're now in a situation where, you know, if they don't take care of the sewer problem and I know it's not sexy. It's not one of those deals that you go out and say we're building an arena. I mean it's hard to go out and say, well we're going to do a sales tax for a wastewater plant. But let me tell you, that's where northwest Arkansas is going to face its Achilles heel if they don't start getting on that quickly.
[00:07:58] Speaker A: Infrastructure is huge. Affordable housing is huge. Let me throw out a few more numbers because these are pretty amazing. Now this is just in a one year period. Again, July 1 of 23 to July 1 of 24among cities with more than 20,000 residents. Centerton, which you just mentioned, led the way with a 7.2% growth. Right. The population went from 24, 024 to 25745 during just a 12 month period. During the previous reporting period, Centerton was the sixth fastest growing city of more than 20,000 residents in the country. Most Arkansas would never dream of that. If you would ask who in the top 10 of more than 20,000, it's centered during this reporting period. It was the 31st fastest growing city. Farmington, meanwhile had a 7% growth rate. Its population again in just one year increased from 9,786 to 10,473.
So there are as you just hit on a lot of mayors facing and city councils facing growth issues. There are county judges in Washington and Benton county facing growth issues like they have never faced before.
We have talked about the northwest Arkansas boom now for 30 or 40 years.
But that boom's speeding up. As you and I have talked about in recent shows. I coined that word boomier. I think I said the boom is getting boomier in northwest Arkansas.
[00:09:40] Speaker B: Yeah. And boom. But again, go back and sometimes we look at numbers and we look at people are spreading out in northwest Arkansas and they're spreading out. Senator's a great example But Senderton's facing a wastewater issue, a big one. And pretty soon you're going to do you put septic tanks out there. I mean, what do you do? So northwest Arkansas has a huge problem. Now the other factor you got in Northwest Rex is that Bentonville is growing. But Bentonville is attracting wealthy families, very high wage. And so those who can't afford housing in Bentonville are having to go to the suburbs and drive into Bentonville. It, you know, you just can't.
Many people can't afford to live in Bentonville. Now if you look at the other places in northwest Arkansas, Fable and Springdale are probably better positioned for long term growth and planned growth because they have decent systems, but they're going to have to deal with Universities of Arkansas is growing like crazy. It can't keep up with the housing. The housing is slipping over into the Fable market, forcing the prices up for everybody's apartment. Fable is going to have to expand its wastewater.
[00:11:21] Speaker A: Right.
[00:11:22] Speaker B: I mean, when we talk about growth in northwest Arkansas, and we should, we also need to put growth infrastructure because what they did right was the airport.
Their highway system though expanded, still not adequate.
[00:11:39] Speaker A: That's right.
[00:11:40] Speaker B: And the sewer thing, I'm telling you, you've been in part, you've been in the communities. When you don't have good wastewater, you don't attract industry. The other number one thing I was going to say to you that you were talking about numbers. And when you look from 23 to 24 in Arkansas, this is an interesting trend. The under 18 population, under 18 declined by 0.8 10 of a percent from 707,000 to 701,000.
The 65 and older population increased by 9.4% from 514,000 to 562,000.
So what you're seeing, I think, Rex, a continuing trend of a lot of retirees from Kansas City, Chicago, places like that moving into northwest and north central Arkansas.
[00:12:42] Speaker A: Agreed. And I happen to think, skip that the next big thing, if you will, and let me get back to the point that these are going to be more high wage people. A lot of them will be retirees, but a lot of them will be high wage people who live in the area is going to be, as growth pushes further north toward the Missouri border is going to be Bella Vista. We have seen Tom and Stuart Walton buy up all that remaining undeveloped land that for much of our lifetimes was Cooper Communities, land that was started by John Cooper as a retirement community just the same as he did Cherokee Village and Hot Springs Village afterward.
But now they're adding those bike trails. You've already got the golf courses there.
But amazingly for northwest Arkansas, there was still a lot of undeveloped land.
And I think we're going to see Bella Vista Skip be very hot over the next decade.
[00:13:40] Speaker B: I do too. When you look at the cities that are the most populous Cities, the top nine, Bentonville now is at 62,000. It's going to keep growing. But when you, the next one is pine bluff at 39,000 and keeps dropping. Yeah. So there's going to be a new top tenor.
And on that list very well could be Benton, Sherwood, Bella Vista. Yeah, Bella Vista could be moving, moving up that list. But you know, it, we think about population growth and I've gotten into a lot of this just by, by, by watching.
Boy, you, you just can't do it without infrastructure. You have got to figure out how to do that. That worries me a little bit about northwest Arkansas.
[00:14:30] Speaker A: Let me, let me throw out more numbers from this one year update. From 2023 to 2024, Centerton added more residents than Fayetteville, even though it's only a fourth the size of Fayetteville. Getting back to Skip's infrastructure problem, 1721 in Centerton, 1623 in Fayetteville, Bentonville grew by 2081 people.
The top four cities in the state as far as the number of people added were Bentonville first, Centerton second, Fayetteville third and Pea Ridge fourth.
During the one year period, Bentonville had a 3.5% growth rate.
During the period from 2020 to 2024.
If you take in that entire period, Bentonville grew at a 14% rate as it added 7,575 people.
Bella Vista, just talking about, grew at a 10.6% rate. During the four year period.
That city added 3,150, 52, 92 residents for a population of 33 to 74.
Again, you mentioned maybe them moving into the top 10 right now, 33 to 74. And that's before Tom and Stuart Walton really start their development.
Skip, I think it's easy to say that by the 2030 census, the Bella Besto will be well over 50,000 people.
[00:16:08] Speaker B: Yeah, I think that's right. And I, you know, again, but, but Rex, I think when we talk about that in fairness and this is where you and I get back. And by the way, I loved your column on recent column on Des Arc.
[00:16:22] Speaker A: Oh, thank you. Great things happening there. Thanks to Paul Gas.
[00:16:26] Speaker B: Yeah, I agree with that. But we tend to, we tend to overlook another factor that's that's really happening here.
We got so many counties that are losing population. We're 48th in health care.
We're 49th in dental visits. More than half of our counties are maternal care deserts.
We've got, you know, multiple counties that don't have a hospital. Rural hospitals are now even in more trouble.
So I think as we celebrate growth, and we should.
We should also not. We can't afford to give up on more than half of the state.
We can't. And I don't. We may not be able to turn everything around, but we just can't.
We've got to acknowledge the deserts and the cave cities of the world. We've got to acknowledge the challenges that Helen are facing, the challenges that Eudora is facing, the challenges that even communities that you and I think are pretty. El Dorado and Texarkana. There are a lot of challenges out there.
[00:17:43] Speaker A: There really are. And skip the thing that worries me.
I mean, I celebrate right now that overall, as a state, our economy is doing really well. The Arkansas economy is hot.
But if you look at the increasing cost, already well over 200 million a year of the governor's voucher plan, if you look at a $1 billion prison the state seems determined to build, and then if you add in what are going to be massive federal cuts in Medicaid and other areas, people who I really trust that I got to know during my 10 years in Governor's. Governor's office that know the state budget, they tell me they fear we are headed off a fiscal cliff and that all we did in this legislative session this year was put that off for another couple of years.
[00:18:44] Speaker B: Well, we saw that happen in Kansas, and, And I think let's hope that doesn't happen for the. For the good of the. But you're right, because what we've got, these. These cuts are, Are coming. They're. They're real.
They're going to impact. They're going to really impact the poor and the hungry.
And.
Yeah, I mean, I think when you start talking about this voucher program, which is, you know, a lot of advantage people are getting.
[00:19:15] Speaker A: Absolutely. And growing by millions and millions of dollars every year. We make everybody eligible who already sent.
[00:19:21] Speaker B: Their kids to private school in the first place. But, but, but notwithstanding that, you know, knowing that factors out there, I think the state's got to take a look. I mean, I'm worried about our investment in higher ed.
I'm worried about that. I think that's an issue. I really do worry about what we're going to do about these rural hospitals.
I just, I mean that's. Could be a real. And the warning signals are there now, whether they come true or not. I know that the warning signals are there. But Rex, when you look back in the great history of Arkansas and again, you know, when Arkansas was admitted to the Union in 1836, we were 96% forestry land.
Today we're 56% forestry. We've still got a lot of forestry land.
[00:20:09] Speaker A: Yeah, that we do.
[00:20:10] Speaker B: And, and we have to look at the areas that drive the economy and jobs and hope in all parts of the state. And I think forestry is one of them.
[00:20:22] Speaker A: Let me throw out a few more numbers before we finish up. Of the 10 most populous cities in the state during that one, during that four year period, from 2020 to 2024, only two lost population.
You mentioned Pine Bluff. It fell from 4974 to 38 785.
Number eight, North Little Rock is stagnant right now. It fell from 64,674 to 64,498.
Little Rock grew from 202607 to 2047 74.
So Little Rock has never experienced explosive growth. But if you look back over most of my lifetime now, skip it has been steady and I think that's good. When you turn around and look at other similar southern cities that have bled population during that period, and I include Jackson, Mississippi, which is in free fall, as we both know. I include Shreveport, Louisiana. I include Birmingham, Alabama, which is now smaller than Huntsville. By the way, it's no longer the largest city in Alabama.
When you compare it to those cities, Little Rock looks pretty good.
[00:21:43] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:21:44] Speaker A: Sustaining growth over many decades, although it is not fast growth.
[00:21:49] Speaker B: No, but, but when you look again, you look at the 10 counties in Arkansas that lead in population, six are in Central Arkansas. And all of a sudden they may not live in, in Little Rock, but a lot of people in Faulkner, in Saline and Lonoke counties work in Little Rock and particularly with the growth at the port. But let me tell you what Little Rock's done right?
Number one, the new interstate highway system, the new bridge over the Arkansas River. At a time when federal funding may be going away, that's a big step. Little Rock has got an abundance of good water. The Lake Maumell watershed, the Lake Maumell watershed and the Buffalo national were protected in this last.
And give the governor credit for that for supporting that. You've also got a good airport close by. I mean it's very.
Little Rock has done pretty Good on its infrastructure. I mean, you've really. And what makes Little Rock unique, I think, is that it has become a city of neighborhoods.
You got soma, you got Pettaway, which is a great success story.
[00:22:59] Speaker A: Oh, unbelievable.
[00:23:00] Speaker B: Unbelievable.
[00:23:01] Speaker A: As you know, my son is about to get married and he and his fiance, Beyonce, and this excites me. They're both in their 20s.
They're building a home in Penway, of all things.
It's the next hot thing for young people. Well, that is.
[00:23:17] Speaker B: Yeah. But you've got.
You've got Hillcrest, you've got the Heights, you've got the River Market. You've got a lot of neighborhoods where people feel.
So you've got a small town identity, Arkadelphia and Batesville in a big town. The other thing that I would say about Little Rock is that, you know, with all the growth, you know.
[00:23:39] Speaker A: First.
[00:23:40] Speaker B: Dental school, State of Arkansas.
[00:23:42] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:23:43] Speaker B: Opened up. We're going to have 240 dental school students in three years. It's going to make a big difference.
[00:23:49] Speaker A: Will be great for the Riverdale neighborhood.
[00:23:51] Speaker B: It's going to be great for the.
[00:23:52] Speaker A: Riverdale restaurant stores, apartment complexes there.
[00:23:55] Speaker B: But Little Rock is in like, it's doing right in a lot of things. I know people want to criticize and always want to talk about the bad stuff, but. And there are.
There's some issues. But when you look at the growth in the port, when you look at the use of the river, when you look at the work they're doing at the airport, I think Little Rock.
I think Little Rock's going to. It may never. It's not going to be a growth boom area, but it's steady and we'd rather. Rather be in our position than many of the urban areas surrounding us.
[00:24:26] Speaker A: Absolutely. One thing I think we would both like to see, though, and that's back to that infrastructure issue, is the trend in Little Rock with continued growth, go to infield development rather than pushing further west. And the fact is, you're not going to be able to push much further west because you get into the protected areas of the Lake Maumelle watershed, as you mentioned, and you get into the Ouachita National Forest. So I think Little Rock's probably going to be forced to do more infield development. And frankly, and Pettaway is an example of that.
It's so much cheaper than developing a new subdivision because the water's already there, the sewer is already there, the streets are already there.
[00:25:17] Speaker B: Yeah. And you're going to have to take. Little Rock is going to have to take a look at Infield development.
[00:25:22] Speaker A: We got a lot of abandoned lots.
[00:25:24] Speaker B: They're going to have, they're going to have to be, they're going to have to be flexible in terms of zoning, in terms of things that you may not want to get approved in the Heights or Chanel, but that would help with single family or multiple family housing in these areas. Small houses.
Yes. So I think you're right and I think there are some examples when you look at the work that Mike Olendorff's done in Pedaway, the work that Adam Fogelman's done, the county attorney who has been a pioneer in the Pedaway development, there are some people that know how to do this.
[00:26:02] Speaker A: There are and it is good to see.
Now let me, let me get back to central Arkansas as a whole.
We talk about Little Rocks growing, although it's kind of steady, it's kind of slow.
But boy, one of the amazing stories continues to be Conway now number seven largest city. They will go up in the next census even higher.
But Conway grew during that four year period from 2020 to 2024, from 64, 3. 64 to 70,711. Skip When I grew up in Arkadelphia, admittedly this is more than 50 years ago, but we thought of Arkadelphia and Conway as about the same. They were both about 11,000 people. They were both college towns.
Conway. I look at this figure and it just blows my mind now to see a city of more than 70,000 people.
And again, it's been helped by having three four year colleges there.
[00:27:07] Speaker B: Well, and Rex, one of the things that we shortchange ourselves in central Arkansas, when we think of northwest Arkansas, we talk about northwest Arkansas growth and we don't. We realize in these top 10 cities there are three counties that have two population basis. Benton county has Rogers and Bentonville. Washington county has Fable and Springdale.
Pulaski county has Little Rock and North Little Rock. But then you look at the next growth counties, Lonoke.
[00:27:35] Speaker A: Right.
[00:27:35] Speaker B: Close to Little Rock, Saline close to Little Rock and Faulkner, Faulkner close to Little Rock. I mean and then White's not too far away, close to Little Rock. So when you think, we think Little Rock versus northwest Arkansas, we need to be thinking northwest Arkansas, Central Arkansas.
[00:27:55] Speaker A: Yeah. And a lot of Arkansas seem surprised when I tell them because they bred so much as they should. It's been great for the state. What has happened in northwest Arkansas, Arkansas. But I mentioned to him, I said the Central Arkansas Metropolitan statistical area, the MSA is 200,000 bigger than the Northwest Arkansas MSA. It's not even close.
[00:28:20] Speaker B: It's not even close. And I think that again, I go back to metro planning, back to Jim McKenzie and others who worked on that, this Little Rock's leadership in years past, we've done a pretty good job here, Rex, on infrastructure, not perfect, but I would rather be.
I would rather be looking at expanding our wastewater capabilities versus what our friends in Centerton and those place. Because you have to ask yourself, if people can't afford to live in Bentonville and they move to Centerton or Pea Ridge, what's Bentonville's responsibility for the sewer in Centerton? Because these workers are working in Bentonville. So that may be the Northwest Arkansas Council's biggest challenge.
[00:29:15] Speaker A: Absolutely. Now, before we go, I want to mention something. I like to look ahead, I know you do, too, and try to predict to the 2030 census. So what's going to happen over the next five years? Well, growth is going to continue in northwest Arkansas, no doubt, Although infrastructure problems could slow at some. You're exactly right. Growth's going to continue in central Arkansas.
But I see a couple of things that if we play our cards right as a state, get the infrastructure in, make the schools good enough to attract the workers, you've got the coming lithium boom in southwest Arkansas and the steel boom in northeast Arkansas.
And again, if we play our cards right, two opposite sides of the state, I think that might result in counties in those areas growing more rapidly than they have in recent decades. In fact, most of those counties have been losing population in recent decades.
[00:30:18] Speaker B: And don't forget the defense spending in Camden.
[00:30:21] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. Add that to the lithium in that part of the stuff.
[00:30:25] Speaker B: So, yes, I think there's possibilities there.
Lithium is probably going to be long term.
Steel is going steadily.
And I know my buddy Cliff Chetwood, your friend, and others in Mississippi county are working their tails off trying to make sure the quality of life there is attractive to families to live there. I know they're trying hard. They're working every day at it.
So I'm. There's, there's hope because one of the reasons people move to an area is jobs.
But you've still got the challenges of affordable housing. Where, where they are.
Is it adequate? Number two, you got the challenges of education.
And so the quality of life issues are something I've always said, the economic development. And by the way, people totally disagree with me on this. I've always said there ought to be a quality of life section in the economic development plan because it's not just about building a factory and jobs. It's about building a community. And there ought to be that part of it. I look at again, I go back to one of my favorite small towns and I think one of the best young mayors in the city, Jonas Anderson, state at Cave City, you know, they got devastated tornado.
They didn't get the disaster relief that Texas is getting.
[00:31:50] Speaker A: That's right.
[00:31:51] Speaker B: They didn't get it. And I'm not faulting Texas. They deserve it. Good Lord, what a terrible thing.
But this guy's not crying. He's out there just working his tail off trying to build it back and we ought to help him.
[00:32:06] Speaker A: Yeah. Oh, I could not agree more. Skip, we're out of time. I knew it'd go fast. It's fascinating. I love talking about this. And we'll get you, get you back on soon. And we'll, we'll keep an eye on these population trends.
[00:32:20] Speaker B: It's fascinating and it'll be something, Rex, that we ought to keep an eye on.
[00:32:25] Speaker A: Yeah, absolutely. Skip Rutherford, our guest on the Southern Fried podcast. Thank you for joining us. Again, this has been a production of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette.
